2019 Snow Update - with historic figures back to 2014

Since 2014, I've reported on snowpack figures. I was inspired by University of Utah atmospheric science professor Jim Steenburgh, who happens to be an avid backcountry skier. His blog talks a lot about the science behind great snow - lots of detailed info and an introduction to the concept of the Steenburgh Winter (Defined below), which is upon us in southwest Montana. 

It is interesting to take look at how we're feeling about a ski season versus how the stats compare to previous years. The skiing in southwest Montana has been great lately thanks to a recent round of storms and cold weather. These recent storms marked a turning point in our ski season. Things were promising in November with several big storms and wintery conditions the entire month, but December and January were warm with minimal snow. IT wasn't looking too good for a while and you had to get creative with your backcountry skiing, but now everyone is stoked. 

The forecast calls for cooler temperatures with the ten day forecast predicting temperatures climbing from an expected high tomorrow of three degrees to temperatures in the mid-20s so things should hold up nicely. Let's see how it goes...

On paper, [The stats so far this year....Big Sky, 48" - 89" (Season-to-date snow not reported); Bridger Bowl, 70" base, (192" season); Alta, 133", (386" season); Crested Butte, 71" (186" season)] things are looking good. Not best-ever conditions in southwest Montana but on par with last year, which was a great year. I'd say the ski area stats match the stoke level. Alta and Crested Butte are doing much better than last year, and I'm sure there are a lot of happy skiers there.  

Dr. Steenburgh believes a 100" base is needed for Alta and other skiing in Cottonwood Canyon skiing to transform from early season conditions into great skiing. I don't ski

Bridger Bowl much anymore but several old-timers claim the skiing doesn't get good there until there is a  70" base. Big Sky, in my opinion, has such erratic winds and so much scree that picking a number would be tough. I'm sure there are ski bums out who have strong opinions about the base depth needed for good skiing at Big Sky or Bridger Bowl or any place for that matter. It would be fun to sit around with them over a beer and listen to the debate unfold.

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section of this post. Just how good is this season? What's the magic snow depth that kicks off the Steenburgh Winter in Big Sky, Bridger or your favorite ski area? 

 

Historic Data2018 (February 19) Big Sky, 63" - 95" (Not reported); Bridger Bowl, 77" base, (210" season);
Alta, 76", 1(83" season); Crested Butte, 48" (112" season)
2017 (February 14) Big Sky 48" - 72" (188" season); Bridger Bowl = 45" (143" season)
2016 (February 12) Big Sky 43” - 65” (277" season); Bridger Bowl = 56” (209" season)
2015 (February 17) Big Sky 42”- 63” (294" season); Bridger Bowl = 56” (228" season)
2014 (February 12) Big Sky 57” - 85” (236" season) ; Bridger Bowl = 76” (166" season)

Cheat sheet - concepts and resources:http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2012/02/year-without-winter.html 

“Steenburgh winter begins the first day that the Alta-Collins snow stake reaches 100….It represents the approximate snow depth needed to transition from early season conditions to winter conditions in the Cottonwoods…. Steenburgh winter ends on February 10…. It seems to be around this time of year when the sun begins to have an increasingly caustic effect on powder…. Prior to February 10, powder can linger for many days on most aspects.  Even south facing slopes might survive without a melt-freeze cycle if it is really cold.  After February 10, the south aspects will almost always suffer a melt-freeze cycle if the sun comes out and, as the days go on, the sun becomes an increasingly formidable enemy to powder on an increasingly greater range of aspects.”Jim Steenburgh’s blog: http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/

Dr. Steenburgh recommends…“A web page that is pretty useful in regard to sun angle, etc is http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/AltAz.php. On February 10, our (Wasatch area) maximum sun angle reaches 35 degrees above the horizon.”

First day the maximum sun angle reaches 35 degrees above the horizon:

• Crested Butte, Colorado = February 4

• Alta = February 10

• Bozeman/Big Sky area = February 24